000
FXUS61 KLWX 062010
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
310 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE KENTUCKY WILL TRACK NE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CWFA IN LULL BTWN ERLR PCPN /NOW OVR NJ/ AND LARGE SWATH OVR LWR
OH/TN/MID MS VLYS. WK LOPRES NEAR SDF WL APPROACH TNGT. NOT THE
GREATEST MDL AGREEMENT IN ITS EXACT PLACEMENT...NOR IS THERE IDEAL
CONSENSUS ON WHETHER OR NOT COLD AIR WL REMAIN ENTRENCHED. HIPRES
CNTRD IN NEW ENGLND HAS WEDGED TWD INTO CWFA. SOME GDNC KEEPS IT
THERE TNGT...AND EVEN CREEPS SUBFRZG AMS SWD AFDK /LED BY WRF-NMM12G
AND SREF/ AND OTR GDNC CONTS WARMING TREND OVNGT /NAM12 AND SPCLY
GFS40/.

MESO OBS SUGGEST THAT THE SUBFRZG LN NW OF BALT CITY-IAD-CHO ATTM.
SOME PATCHY SUBFRZG AREAS E OF THERE...AND CNTRL SHEN VLY IN MID
30S. IN SHORT...ADVY AREA GNLY LOOKING OK.  SINCE TEMPS SO BRDRLN
ATTM...AND DONT SEE LARGE ADVCTV FORCES ONE WAY OR THE OTR...DONT
PLAN ON MAKING CHGS TO HEADLINES. THE MOST SUSPECT PART OF ADVY WAS
FM CHO-CJR. BUT...CHO MTR HAS SLID A DEG OR TWO PAST CPL HRS...
WHICH PRECLUDES MAKING CHGS THERE. OVRALL...TEMPS HV DROPPED A DEG
OR TWO ACRS MOST OF CWFA. BUT...AS MNTND ERLR...PCPN LGT...AND IN
MANY PLACES ITS JUST DZ. THINK ONCE PCPN RTNS...IT WL ASSIST IN
MIXING WARMER AIR DWN. ELY FLOW WUD ALSO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FZRA.

EVE FCST WL FEATURE NEAR STDY TEMPS. PTYPE WL BE RA OUTSIDE OF ADVY
AREA...AND FZRA IN ADVY/WRNG AREAS. WL HV BUFFER ZN BTWN TWO. SINCE
THERE/S NOTHING TO REALLY KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE...WL STILL FEATURE
RISING TEMPS OVNGT. THAT WL PERMIT /HOPEFULLY/ THE EXPIRATION OF THE
ADVY IN SHD/CHO ERLR THAN REST OF CWFA. ICE ACCUMS HV BEEN TONED
DOWN...BASED LRGLY ON REPORTS TO THIS PT. WL GO FOR LWR END OF WRNG
THRESHOLD...AS SWATH IN THE MIDWST HEADED TWD THAT AREA. OTRW...
MAYBE A TENTH INCH OR LESS. THE EDGES OF THE ADVY LIKELY TO BE JUST
A TRACE.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LOW TAKES MOST OF THE DAY TO TREK PAST CWFA. IT WL DRAG A CDFNT
THRU...BUT NOT TIL DAY/S END. ANY LINGERING ICING WL BE CONFINED TO
MD BRDR...SPCLY ARND HGR...AND SHUD BE SCOURED OUT. SO...CAT POPS...
W/ PTYPE RAIN. THERE/S A SPREAD IN MOS TEMPS... AND WL BE
UNDERCUTTING ALL OF EM...AS EFFECT OF CAD WL STILL LINGER.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RLTVLY FAST FLOW DURG THE WEEK AHD. THE BEGINNING OF THE XNTD WL
FEATURE BRZY CONDS AS LOW OVER LAKE ERIE DEEPENS AT SAME TIME HIGH
PRES BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS WL LKLY CONT THRU THE DAY
THU. IN THIS SITU THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE IS XPCTD TO GET TURNED
ON AGN WED NGT AND THU. IT IS PSBL THAT SNOW ADVISORIES FOR
HIGHLANDS WL BE NEEDED TO BE ISSUED EITHER ON MIDSHIFT TNGT OR
DURG DAY WED.

AFTRWRDS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FRI GIVING THE AREA ITS BEST SHOT FOR
SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS STILL COOL THO - M30S AND L40S PREDOMINANT.

THE NEXT QUICK SHOT SYSTEM WOULD BE ON SAT AS A CD FNT MOVES THRU
THE AREA...PRBLY SAT AFTN. WAA AHD OF SYSTEM WOULD PUSH TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 40S ACROSS MAJORITY OF CWA - CHC OF RA E OF THE MTNS..
PSBL RA/SN MIX W.

HIGH PRES RETURNS SUN AND MON. STRONG CAA XPCTD DURG SUN WHICH WL
MAKE IT ANOTHER BRZY/WINDY DAY. COMBINED W/ TEMPS IN 30S WOULD PUT
WIND CHILLS IN U TEENS/L20S.

A WK IN ADVANCE IS STILL UNSURE..BUT IF PATTERN CONTINUES...AS
GFS HINTS...NEXT SYSTEM WOULD BE ON TUE.

STRETCHING WAY OUT...MDLS HINT THAT A LARGE WRN RDG/ERN TROF TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WK. XPCT BLO NMRL
TEMPS.

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR/IFR FLGT CONDS ATTM. ALL CONDS WL BE LWRG TO IFR OR BLO ELY
THIS EVNG...AS TEMPS COOL SLGTLY IN SATD AMS. WL NOT BE FCSTG CIGS
BLO LIFR OR VSBYS BLO IFR...THO GDNC SUGGESTS OTRW. IN TAFS...PTYPE
ALL RA XCPT FOR MRB...IN PREFERED ZN FOR FZRA. WL NEED TO WATCH
CHO...AS CONDS VERY CLOSE TO FZRA THERE.

XPCTG GRDL IMPVMNT TMRW...BUT IFR CONDS XPCTD MUCH OF DAY. WL
EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO MVFR.

BRZY NW WINDS PSBL WED NGT AND THU...AND AGN SAT NGT AND SUN.

.MARINE...
MVFR/IFR FLGT CONDS ATTM. ALL CONDS WL BE LWRG TO IFR OR BLO ELY
THIS EVNG...AS TEMPS COOL SLGTLY IN SATD AMS. WL NOT BE FCSTG CIGS
BLO LIFR OR VSBYS BLO IFR...THO GDNC SUGGESTS OTRW. IN TAFS...PTYPE
ALL RA XCPT FOR MRB...IN PREFERED ZN FOR FZRA. WL NEED TO WATCH
CHO...AS CONDS VERY CLOSE TO FZRA THERE.

XPCTG GRDL IMPVMNT TMRW...BUT IFR CONDS XPCTD MUCH OF DAY. WL
EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO MVFR.

WED NGT AND THU..THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LOW PRES IN VNCTY OF LAKE
ERIE AND HIGH PRES BUILDING BACK INTO THE MID ATLC RGN WL BRING
ABT A PD OF SCA WINDS. NEXT PSBLTY WOULD BE SAT AFTN AND SUN.

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MDZ004007-009-010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ003-501-
     502.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ021-025-026-036038.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     VAZ029031-039042-051.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ027-028.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ054.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ053-
     501-502.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ050052-
     055-503-504.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ530533-535537.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ534.

SYNOPSIS...ABW
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...HTS/ABW
MARINE...HTS/ABW